The US President Donald trump made a state visit to China on 13-15 May and floated the idea of G-2 (Group of two powers)to treat China as equal to the US and sought China’s partnership to manage the global affairs. But the G-2 concept is not likely to cut much ice in view of the underlying conflict of strategic interests between the two nations ranging from Indo-pacific to Latin America. This post reviews the underlying fundamental factors affecting their future ties.
The US-China relations have experienced three distinct phases since the birth of Communist China in 1949.
The First Phase (1949-1971) was marked by usual American cold war hostility towards China as it was considered as a junior communist partner of their arch rival the Soviet Union. Thus, the US forces confronted China during Korean War (1950-53) and opposed Communist China’s permanent membership of UN Security Council in place of Nationalist China (Taiwan or Formosa). This was a normal US reaction towards a communist country as the communist bloc led by the former Soviet Union was perceived as a global threat to democratic world led by the US. However, the US was looking for avenues to create rift within Soviet led communist bloc. The opportunity came when China and Soviet Union developed ideological and other differences and in 1969 had military confrontation over territorial dispute in the Usuri River, which demarcates boundary between the two. The US lured China way from the Soviet Union with the promise of Security Council membership. The US Table Tennis team visited China, followed by the secret visit of US Foreign Secretary Henry Kissinger to China with the help of Pakistan. Finally, the US supported Communist China’s membership to Un Security Council and US President Nixon visited China in 1971.
The Second Phase of US-China relationship (1971-2010) is marked by gradual normalization and cooperation between the two countries. It was during this period that the US welcomed China’s ‘Open Door Policy’ launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, heralding the gradual adoption of liberal economic policy by China. The US also helped China to join WTO. China also tried to convince the US and the rest of the world about its ‘peaceful rise’. During this period China also supported the US led military operations in Iraq in 1991 and 2003 as well as in Afghanistan in 2001. This also led to cooperation between the two in economic field. Soon China emerged as the largest trading partner of America. The gradual integration of Chinese economy into the globalized world economy led to flow of western capital and technology in to China, which enabled her to emerge as a global manufacturing hub. The US and western countries raised eyebrows during Tiananmen Square incident in 1989 when China ruthlessly suppressed the democratic uprising led by the students and youth. However, the US and her European allies were convinced that the integration of China into liberal global economy will sooner or later will lead to democratic reforms in China. With pending democratic reforms China would be gradually integrated into the US led liberal global order. However, by the turn of century, the possibility of democratic reforms in China weakened as the Communist Party of China further tightened its grip on the polity, economy and socio-cultural life of China. Finally, with the assumption of power by Xi Jinping in 2012, not only the principle of peaceful rise was abandoned but also the fate of democratic reforms was also sealed. This marked the end of second phase of US China relations.
The Third Phase of US-China relations (2010-till date) is marked by growing acrimony and rivalry between the two in various areas like Taiwan issue, South China Sea, Chinese human rights records, trade and technology, Chinese aggressiveness on various issues, China’s new initiatives like BRI to spread its strategic influence and American attempt to contain China through new initiatives like revival of Quad and formation of AUKUS (military alliance of three nations-Australia, UK and US). China terms these American initiatives as the result of cold war mentality followed by the US.
The US-China relations reached to its nadir during Trump regime in America. The New Security Strategy unveiled by the US during Trump regime in 2017 identified China as the number one global threat to American interests and global influence. During this period, the US imposed trade restriction on Chinese imports, banned US technology companies like Huawei for posing security threat, increased supply of arms to Taiwan, resisted Chinese authoritarian polices in Hong Kong, revived the quadrilateral alliance QUAD (consisting of four countries-US, India, Australia and Japan) in 2017and accused China for the origin of Covid virus among others. China actively resisted US posture on these issues.
The Contemporary Phase of US-China Relations: Trump’s successor Biden has altered many of Trump’s foreign policy moves but has continued with Trump’s policy in case of China. Biden administration took initiative to form tripartite military alliance called AUKUS on 15 September, 2021 for addressing security challenges in the Pacific region. China has termed this US initiative as a tool to contain her influence. While US officially follows the ‘One China policy, treating Taiwan as part of China, but otherwise it has further strengthened its political and defence ties with Taiwan; which is criticized by China. China maintains the eventual merger of Taiwan with mainland China even by the use of force. The US House of representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on 2 August, 2022, which raised military tensions between China and US. During this visit, China conducted high profile military drills in Taiwan Strait. The US-China relations have deteriorated in the wake of Ukraine war (Since 24 February, 2022). China has criticized Russia for its aggression against Ukraine. The US and European nations are actively supporting the Ukraine against Russia. The ever-strengthening China-Russia strategic partnership has raised apprehension in the minds of US policy makers. Just before the beginning of Ukraine war, Russian President Putin visited Beijing in February, 2022 and both declared that their partnership has ‘no limits’. The US also suspects that China may supply weapons to Russia secretly during this war. During Munich Security Conference held on 17-19 February, 2023, the US Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken has threatened that China will face serious consequences if it supplies arms to Russia during Ukraine war. Recently, a Chinese balloon was spotted over the space in North America, which was blown up American jets on 7 February, 2023 as US considered it a spy balloon of China. The US considered this balloon as ‘egregious violation of US airspace’. But China criticized US move claiming this to be research balloon. China also argued that it has seen such US balloons over its airspace for more than ten occasions. The episode has raised fresh tensions between the two countries.
Beside Indo-Pacific, China is also spreading its economic and strategic influence in other parts of world like Middle-East, Africa, Latin America and Europe. While the US is better placed in Europe due to its close network of allies and partners and military alliance like NATO, but it faces daunting challenge to confront Chinese footprints in other regions. Two regional powers namely South Africa and Brazil have close ties with both Russia and China due to their common membership of BRICS. Investment, trade and development assistance are the major tools of Chinese diplomacy in these regions. China has recently tried to make dent on the US strategy in the Middle East. The US brokered Abraham accords in Middle East during 2020-21to develop ties with Israel and the Arab countries. This was a part of US strategy to isolate Iran in the region. But China has successfully brokered a diplomatic accord in March, 2023 between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which were arch rivals for long time. This Chinese initiative nullifies the strategic gains of Abraham accords launched by the US.
However, amidst ongoing US-China-acrimony, there are certain global issues like climate change, food and energy security where the two major powers tend to cooperate with each other in selective manner. Earlier China used to follow the global line on terrorism and extremism, but for last one decade its approach on global terrorism has been non-consistent and selective. On the one hand, China is faced with the challenges of terrorism and extremism in Xinjiang province, but on the other, it has not deterred China to support directly or indirectly the Pakistan-based terrorist groups or to turn the blind eye towards the ideology of Taliban. China has shielded many Pakistan based terrorist from being declared as ‘Global Terrorists’ at the UN Security Council. Thus, the US and China have differences over the issue of terrorism. China’s strategic interests have prevailed over its anti-terrorism policy.
US-China Relations: Fundamental Approaches: However, the contemporary phase of the US-China relations cannot escape the attention of global strategic community. The US- China strategic rivalry to dominate the global order in their own terms is a new fact of international politics in 21st Century. The dynamics of US-China relations (both as rivals as well as partners) has the potential to reshape the prevailing global order in present century. If the US is preeminent established and status-quoist global power since the WWII, China is an emerging and revisionist global power, which wants to alter the norms of global order to create a strategic niche for itself. This fundamental fact is likely to persist in the major part of the present century. The analysis of this fact involves two set of factors:
First, there are the arena and issues where the two have tried to play it out. Some of these issues and arenas are the desire to dominate the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape; Taiwan issue; rivalry in trade, investment, technology and global supply chains; competition to cultivate regional actors and allies, contesting human rights regime; expanding global strategic outreach in many parts of the world like Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Europe and Middle -East. Many new issues and arenas may join this list in future where Status quoits and revisionist strategies of the two major powers are played out in future.
Second, the dynamics of US-China relations in the form of two competing strategies (Status Quoist and Revisionist) are in turn shaped and sustained by many historical, economic, cultural, political drivers and perceptions held by the two rival powers. This paper is based on the assumptions that more than issues and arenas of contest between the two, the key drivers and perceptions underlying their strategies need to be investigated in detail as the dynamics of US-China relations in coming decades will be shaped by the nature of these key drivers and perceptions underlying their strategies.
Major Drivers of US Policy towards China: The contemporary phase of US-China relations is marked by acrimony, competition and rivalry. America’s present policy towards China is based on certain drivers and perceptions:
1. Chinese Challenge to American Global Hegemony: The US has been a super power since the WWII and maintained global hegemony during much of the cold war era. After the end of cold war in 1991, it experienced ‘unipolar movement’ as the only super power which enjoyed unchallenged global hegemony for a decade. But with the rise of other powers centres the global order has become what experts call ‘Uni-Multi-power’ in nature. Even amidst the rising signs of multipolarity, the US continues to be the predominant global power with largest economy and huge military capabilities. In the Indo-Pacific region, the US continues to be a ‘Resident Power’ with military installation and security guarantees to regional players like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia and others.
On the other hand, China’s rise in recent decades has raised eyebrows in America. China is not only the second largest economy but it has developed considerable military capability and technologic heft in recent decades. Thus, US do not mind to admit openly that China is the greatest threat to her global position and interests. Though the US has harboured this perception since the end of cold war, but this perception has become more dominant in view of aggressive and expansionist policies adopted by China under the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2012. China’s aggressive behavior in South China dispute and Taiwan issue has brought US and China many times at the brink of military confrontation. Thus, America would like to hold on its global power status by following status quoits policy, which has come under stress due to Chinese aggressiveness.
2. China as a Threat to Liberal-Democratic World Order: The US and her allies perceive China as a threat to prevailing liberal-democratic order led by the US and her European allies. China has tried to push forward the alternative norms of democracy and human rights to vindicate its authoritarian regime. Earlier the US and European countries supported China’s rise with the hope that its economic growth would herald democratic reforms in China. But, instead of democratic of reforms, the Chinese regime has become more centralized and authoritarian under the leadership of Xi Jinping. Now, the hope for democratic reforms in China is vanished in near future. Due to China’s authoritarian and aggressive policies riding on the wave of new nationalism, the US and Western world have termed China as a ’Systemic Threat’ to the liberal global order. This perception has been used by the US to mobilize a coalition of democratic nations to contain authoritarian and aggressive China.
Major Drivers of China’s Global Strategy: China considers it to be her destiny to emerge as a preeminent global power by the year 2049 when it completes a century of communist revolution. This is the final outcome of what Xi Jinping terms as China Dream. But China cannot attain this status without challenging the present global order led by the US and her allies. Thus, China has no option than to follow revisionist strategy in international politics and confronting US position on various global issues and arenas. China’s present global strategy has been shaped and sustained by many drivers and perceptions articulated over the years.
1. Historical Factors: In spite of all-around modernization, China and its leadership still remember the past glory of China during the Imperial era, which began in 3rd Century BC and lasted till the republican revolution in 1911. China still suffers from the ‘Middle Kingdom Syndrome’, in which China projected itself as the Centre (Middle) of human civilization. During colonial era, China has faced the colonial exploitation during 18th and 19th centuries, resulting in the loss of its territory and glory both. The exploitation was in the form of forcing Christian missionaries and European culture, unequal treaties, compulsive and unfavourable terms of trade, imposition of war indemnities, and loss of territory and physical occupation. European merchants arrived in large number in China in 18th century. The trade restrictions imposed by China on the opium trade on health ground proved the bone of contention between China and European powers. This led to two Opium wars: The first Opium war was with Britain during 1939-42 in which China was defeated and forced to sign the Treaty of Nanking in 1942. This was the first in the series of forced agreements what China calls ‘unequal treaties’ and beginning of the ‘century of humiliation’. The Century of Humiliation refers to the unequal treaties imposed by colonial powers on China during 1849-1949 to seek economic and trade concessions. The memory of this humiliation is still fresh in the minds of new Chinese leadership. When Xi talks of rejuvenation of China, it means restoration of China’s lost glory over the year (Kaufman: 2010). Chinese aggression and expansionism is justified on the basis of its victimhood during colonial era. China has also witnessed cultural revivalism since the beginning of 21st century. Immediately following the communist revolution in 1949, Confucius and his ideas were dumped by the communist regime. But now, China is projecting Confucius as a symbol of its soft power. China has opened a total of 530 Confucius Institutes in 149 countries and regions around the world to highlights are past cultural achievements (Xinhua: 2018). These historical factors underpin China’s present global strategy as well as its global ambitions.
2. Economic Rise of China: China’s economic rise in last four decades has shaped and sustained China’s global ambitions. In 1978 the size of Chinese economy was $149 billion which has reached to $14 trillion in 2021, which makes her second largest economy after the US economy of $22 trillion. The share of Chinese economy in the global economy has also increased from 1.75 percent in 1978 to 15 percent in 2020. At present, China is the largest trading country (annual trade $5646 billion), and largest holder of foreign exchange reserves ($ 3.15 trillion), largest foreign investor with total investment of $ 1 trillion under the BRI project only. (Statista: 2021). China has lifted nearly 400 million people out of abject poverty since 1978. Even amidst Covid-19 Pandemic, the Chinese economy has registered a growth of 8.5 percent in the year 2020-21. The economic growth is expected to be 5.4 percent next year (World Bank: 2021).
3. Technological Heft and Military Modernization: China has scored well in the frontier areas of modern technology like ICT, G5, AI and others. China’s military modernization has gone hand in hand. China has proposed a defence budget of $225 billion for the year 2023, which is 7.2 percent higher than last year budget. China’s military spending has been increasing with double digit annual growth for a decade till 2015 and nearly 6-7 percent thereafter. This higher spending on defence has enabled China to focus on the rapid modernization of her defence capabilities. China’s defence budget is three times more to India’s defence budget but one-third of the US defence budget (The Economic Times: 2023). China has built advanced hypersonic missile system, fifth generation fighter jets and two indigenous aircraft carriers, advanced drones etc to match with any modern defence force. China has third largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons after Russia and the US. China has gained many port facilities at Indian Ocean ports like Hambantota and Gwader. The rapid defence modernization has enabled China to project her military power at least in the entire Indo-Pacific region which is the main theatre of contest between US and China.
4. Ideological Factors: a perceptible change in this framework when the new leader Xi Jinping came into power in October, 2012. The 18th Party Congress in 2012 adopted a new guiding principle ‘the Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in New Era, which marked a new phase in China’s domestic and foreign policies. The suffix ‘New Era’ heralded China’s new goals and strategy in the changing global and domestic environment. Xi does not mind projecting China’s image of strong nation rather than hiding the claws as was suggested by Deng. China’s Communist party has completed 100 years on 1 July, 2021. On this occasion, a new book titled ‘A Short History of Communist Party of China’ is released, which incorporates the new ideological changes in the New Era. Justifying autocratic leadership of Xi Jinping in place of collective leadership, the book says, ‘among ten thousand majestic mountains, there must be a main peak’ (Krishnan: 2021). During the 20th Congress of Chinese Communist Party held in October, 2022 (once in five-year event), Xi Jinping not only succeeded in extending his rule for the record third term but also replaced Deng’s principle of ‘collective leadership’ of party with his own personal leadership and control. This ideological shift and fluidity enable the communist regime to focus on those values and norms which suit their interests, even if they are contrary to prevailing global norms and values.
Conclusion: The US China relations display a U-turn trajectory. During cold war, the US was hostile to the newly established Communist regime of China. However, the US policy took U-turn in early 1970s and courted communist China as a counterweight to its rival super power Soviet Union. In the post-cold war era, The US and other western nations continued to facilitate China’s rise and integration in the global economy with the hope that it would eventually lead to democratization of Chinese regime and assimilation of China as a junior partner in the liberal global order. However, the US hopes were shattered as China displayed more centralization and authoritarianism domestically and aggressive approach in foreign affairs. This tendency has become more pronounced during the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2012. Now, the US considers China as major threat to its global hegemony and a systemic threat to the prevailing liberal world order. On the other hand, China finds its natural claim and historical mission to emerge as a major global power. Hence the US has adopted Status quoits approach whereas China has followed revisionist approach to realize its global ambitions. This has resulted in the rivalry and competition between the two major powers. Since the underlying drivers behind their approaches are lasting in nature, this rivalry is bound to last in coming decades. This strategic rivalry is being played out in various arenas and issues like Taiwan, South China Sea, power projection in Indo-Pacific, human rights issues among others. Some issues may join this list in future. There has been a steep downfall in their bilateral relations in recent years so much so that the hopes of normalization are remote. People once hope that the two powers could forge a better relationship. Now the best hope is stopping deterioration (The Guardian: 2023).
REFERENCES
Kaufman, Alison. 2010. ‘The “Century of Humiliation,” Then and Now: Chinese Perceptions of the International Order”. Pacific Focus. 25 (1), pp. 1–33, Available At: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1976-5118.2010.01039
Krishnan, Ananth. 2021. ‘Back to the Future of China’s Communists’, Profiles, The Hindu. 27 June, 2021.
Statista (2021) ‘Key economic indicators of China – statistics & facts’, Statista https://www.statista.com/topics/5819/key-economic-indicators-of-china/
The Economic Times (2023) India Vs China: A tale of two Defence Budgets. The Economic Times, 8 March, 2023. Available At: https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/india-vs-china-a-tale-of-two-defence-budgets/articleshow/98498491.cms
The Guardian (2023) The Guardian views on US-China Relations: Can the downward spiral be halted? Editorial. The Guardian, 9 March, 2023. Available At: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/09/the-guardian-view-on-china-us-relations-can-the-downwards-spiral-be-halted
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