thNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a post-WWII collective security organization for Europe and North America. When NATO was formed in 1949, it had 12 members, but after multiple rounds of expansion, its membership has increased to 32. Finland, sharing 2500 kms land border with Russia is the latest member which joined NATO on 04 April, 2023, in spite of strong objections by Russia, which has been persistently objecting to eastward expansion of NATO due to her own security concerns. Sweden joined NATO in March, 2024 as its 32nd member. The proposed membership of Ukraine to NATO is one of the main reasons for Russian aggression against Ukraine in February, 2022. NATO members are actively supporting Ukraine against Russia in the ongoing conflict. NATO was established to ensure European security, but unfortunately it has become a major factor in prolonging conflict in Europe. The impact of very existence of NATO and its subsequent expansion in the post-cold war era needs to be examined in relations to the emerging security architecture in Europe as well as its global strategic implications.
NATO’s Mandate and its Rationale
NATO or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an inter-governmental collective security alliance formed on 4 April, 1949. At present, it has 30 members, out of which 28 are from Europe and two (the US and Canada) are from North America. The NATO is the product of cold war between the US led capitalist bloc and Soviet Union led communist bloc following the WWII. The two sides developed differences during the last phase of the war. Also, they had fundamental differences in their ideological positions. The European countries feared security threat from Soviet Union as well as defeated Germany. NATO is not the first attempt by European countries to ward off security threat from Communist Soviet Union. In March, 1947, Britain and France signed the Treaty of Dunkirk as a security alliance against the possible threats from Soviet Union and Germany. The Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemburg) joined this treaty in 1948 and alliance was renamed as “Western Union’. It is also known as Brussels Treaty Organization. Meanwhile the American President Henry Truman propounded the Truman doctrine in 1947 which aimed at restricting Soviet Union’s strategic influence in Europe. Thus America, Canada and some other countries also expressed their desire to join the Western Union security alliance. It was in this background that all these countries signed Washington Treaty also known as North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April, 1949, which established NATO as a collective security alliance of Europe and North America. In total 12 countries signed this treaty: UK, France Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. The Head Quarters of NATO was established at Brussels in Belgium.
NATO is based on the idea of collective security mechanism. The principle of collective security has been operationalized in NATO under the provisions of Article 5 of NATO Treaty also known as Washington Treaty. Article 5 reads as follows:
‘The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.’
In simple words, the Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (Washington Treaty) provides that if an armed aggression takes place any one of the NATO member, all other members collectively take measure to defend that members. These measures also included use of armed forces against the aggressor.
The above mandate of NATO and its establishment are justified usually on two grounds:
First, there were fundamental differences in terms of ideology, interests and approaches between democratic-capitalist countries of Europe on the one hand, and communist bloc led and expanded by Soviet Union after the WWII. In view of this western European and North American countries perceived security threat from the communist Soviet Union. Hence these nations needed a collective security mechanism to address the challenge posed by Soviet Union. Finally, NATO came as an answer to this challenge.
Second, regional collective security organizations like NATO are permitted under the UN Charter. The UN is based on the idea of ‘collective security’, which postulates collective defence by the member of UN against and threat o international peace and security. As a corollary to this idea, the UN Charter provisions (Articles 52-54) permitted the establishment of regional collective security organization in tune with its mandate and with certain conditions (UN: 2023).
Article 52 (1) reads, ‘Nothing in the present Charter precludes the existence of regional arrangements or agencies for dealing with such matters relating to the maintenance of international peace and security as are appropriate for regional action provided that such arrangements or agencies and their activities are consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations’.
However, in brief, the UN Charter places the following conditions on such regional security organizations:
1. They should be consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations’. It also means that their activities should be defensive in nature and at no cost offensive.
2. Article 53 says that the UN can utilize such regional arrangements for enforcement of its actions, but such enforcement shall be taken without the authorization of the Security Council.
3. According to Article 54, the Security Council shall at all times be kept fully informed of military activities undertaken by such regional organizations.
Strategic Implications of NATO’s Changing Mandate and Expansion
A. There might be some justification for the formation of NATO during the heyday of cold war and expansionist approaches of the then Soviet union. But after the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991 and disbanding of communist security pact known as Warsaw Pact in 1992, the political justification of NATO’s continuance and further extension is diluted.
B. NATO has not only continued in its original military framework, but has further extended eastward since the end of cold war. Now it has reached to the border of Russia. NATO’s expansion can be understood in two phases: During cold war and during post cold-war period. When NATO was formed on 4 April, 1949, it has just 12 founder members: Britain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. During cold war period four new members joined the organization: West Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Turkey.
Thus at the end of cold war in 1991, the total membership of NATO was 16. But now it has 31 members. The 14 members were admitted during the post-Cold war period after the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1999. This expansion was largely to the members of Soviet Bloc or part of Soviet Union in the Eastern Europe. The details of post-cold war expansion of NATO are:
In 1999 three states- Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary
In 2004 seven states- Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
In 2009 two states- Albania and Croatia.
In 2017 one state- Montenegro
In 2020 one state- North Macedonia
1n 2023 one state- Finland
Russian Security Concerns: This eastward expansion was done in spite of Russian opposition as Russia considered Eastward expansion of NATO as a threat to its security. Russia is not a member of NATO. If Russia’s neghbouring states join NATO, they will have NATO forces in their land which will cause security concerns in Russia. The matter came to head on which Russia two large neighbouring states Ukraine and Georgia applied for NATO membership in 2008.Russia opposed this vehemently and membership was not finalized.
In April, 2022, two other neighbouring states of Russia, Finland and Sweden have expressed their desire to join NATO for their security. But Russia has threatened both these countries to bear consequences if they join NATO in near future. Their membership is under consideration. So far both Finland and Sweden have followed the policy of neutrality between towards Russia. This policy is known as Finlandization. Finland share a 2500 kms long land border with Russia. Finland has joined NATO on 04 April, 2023. The present developments indicate that the membership of NATO for the neighbouring states of Russia will remain a friction point between Russia and NATO in future. But in spite of Russian opposition NATO has continued to expand towards the east near the Russian border. It raises the fundamental question: Is the eastward expansion of NATO in tune with peace and security in Europe? Or it creates new security tensions between Russia and NATO members in Europe? Answer to these questions goes against the NATO mandate under the UN Charter.
The expansion of NATO has some other issues, which will affect European Security in future. First, the rapid expansion of NATO in the east by including many smaller states like Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) has not only undermined its potential but also its cohesiveness. All decisions of NATO are taken by the consent of the all members. But during Ukraine war many countries like Hungary, Turkey and Germany were reluctant to take bold measures against Russia. Many countries have close economic ties with Russia. European countries are dependent on Russia for nearly 40 percent of their natural gas supply. Second, the majority of the European members have concentrated on their economic growth and development. Hence they have neglected their security needs. Hence NATO decided in 2006 that all members shall spend 2percent of their GDP on security. There are only four countries namely Greece, Latvia, Estonia, and Romania, which meet this 2 percent target. This issue was raised by President Trump min 2018 NATO summit. Now if the members increase their defence budget, it would an uneven burden on members as many of the countries have very small GDP. Will large countries like France and Germany would be willing to bear the security cost of small and vulnerable states like Baltic nations. A noted scholar on European security Haass (1997) has termed expansion as a questionable idea as he writes, ‘Expanding NATO could complicate its ability to achieve consensus, weaken the security of those countries not brought in, increase demands on defense budgets when they are already overstretched, and alienate Russia. In the process, Europe’s security could well diminish, not grow. Expansion may help US to hedge Russia, but it has serious strategic implications for Europe and beyond. Menon and Ruger (2020) write, ‘In short, post-Cold War US presidents would have been wiser to listen to the pro-NATO, yet anti-enlargement figures who understood at each turn that enlargement could lead to numerous unintended consequences, additional defense obligations, negligible benefits, and an increased risk of crises and even war’.
C. NATO’s role in European Security has come into limelight during Ukraine war. There is no justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine on 24 February, 2022. But on the other hand, if we view this aggression in the light of NATO’s expansion as well as the provisions of the UN Charter on regional security organization, NATO’s role in Ukraine war begs many questions. NATO or North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a collective security organization of Europe and North America. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but NATO has emerged as key player in the Russia-Ukraine war through supply of advanced weapons to Ukraine in the name of defence as well as extending political and diplomatic support to Ukraine. In spite of the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member and it has no legal obligation to defend Ukraine, NATO has emerged as a major player in this war. NATO has taken two set of actions against Russian invasion. First, the US and NATO members (US is also a NATO member) have imposed punitive sanctions against Russia. These sanctions are very extensive and far reaching. Second, NATO members including Russia have provided generous financial and defence help to Ukraine to fight against Russia. The US and NATO members have supplied heavy weapons like tanks, armoured vehicles, missiles, intelligence equipment etc to Ukraine. They have also promised to supply fighter jets to Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Zelensky has been repeatedly requesting NATO members to supply heavy and deadly weapons to con front Russian invasion. In fact, NATO is fighting a proxy war with Russia through Ukraine.
NATO has declared Russia as aggressor and a potential threat for European security. But the United Security Council has not passed any resolution to declare Russia as an aggressor as Russia has VETO power in Security Council. Thus, NATO’s military assistance is without the authorization of the UN Security Council, which is primary condition of the military activities of a regional security organization under Article 53 of UN Charter.
Here again, one of the major factors responsible for this war is Ukraine’s eagerness to join NATO. Ukraine submitted a request to join NATO way back in 2008, but due to opposition by Russia, NATO did not agree to allow membership to Ukraine. Russia has been opposing the eastward expansion of NATO on the ground of its security concerns. Ukraine shares along border with Russia but does not have friendly relations with it. If Ukraine gets NATO membership, it can deploy its weapons and army in Ukraine near the border to Russia, which Russia finds as a threat to its security. In December, 2021, Russian President Putin asked the NATO and the US both to give written guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO in future. But both NATO and the US declined to give such guarantee. Meanwhile, the present President of Ukraine V. Zelensky pushed the demand for NATO membership. Zelensky amended the Constitution of Ukraine in 2019, which provided that NATO membership is constitutional goal of Ukraine. This made Ukraine’s NATO membership in near future as a sure fact for conflict in the region.
D. When the UN Security Council is tasked with the responsibility of maintaining international peace and security, the permission to establish regional collective organization even purely for defensive purpose is inherently flawed. The reason is that the distinction between the defensive and offensive activities on the ground are blurred and highly contested. For example in the context of Ukraine war, both Russia and NATO claim that their military activities are defensive. Russia argues that it has launched special military operations against Ukraine in self defence as her security is threatened due to increasing proximity between Ukraine and NATO. On the other hand, NATO members are arming Ukraine because of the threat posed by Russian aggression. The challenge is how to keep this distinction in a situation which is highly contested.
E. In the post-cold war era, NATO has not only made geographical expansion, but has also attempted extension of its initial mandate inherent in the Washington Treaty. Gazzini (2003) argues that NATO has radically changed as it clearly emerges from a comparison between the strategic doctrines adopted by NATO in 1991 and 1999. The 1991 doctrine claims the NATO is purely defensive in purpose; none of its weapons will ever be used except in self defence; and military role of NATO is to assure the territorial integrity and political independence of its member states. However, the 1999 strategic doctrine extended the range of activities to tackle international terrorism, peacekeeping operations and enforcement of peace agreements. The involvement of NATO forces in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Kosovo goes beyond its traditional mandate. The extended security mandate of NATO enables it to work as global policeman, undermining the authority of the UN Security council and creating new security tensions in Europe. As NATO prepares its new security doctrine for the 21st century is faced with three disputed questions (Daalder: 2023): First, under what circumstances should NATO threaten or use force? Second, how far should NATO’s writ extend geographically? Third, what is the legal basis for the threat or use of force by NATO in any of these situations? The answers to these questions are not easy as it involves the questioning of its entire security philosophy.
F. Interestingly, the role of NATO in European security and the impacts of its eastward expansion is not debated among western scholars as majority of the Western scholars have developed consensus on two core premises: that Russia is an authoritarian state and is a permanent threat to democratic Europe notwithstanding their close economic linkages with Russia; and that NATO is the most appropriate mechanism to ward off Russian security threat. Neither they are willing to question these premises, nor willing to consider Russia’s legitimate security concerns or the any other kind of engagement with Russia to strengthen European security. NATO has justified its role in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as it argues that NATO has taken defensive and proportionate steps in response to a changed security environment. In response to Russia’s use of military force against its neighbours, Allies (NATO members) requested a greater NATO presence in the Baltic region (NATO: 2023).
Conclusion
At this juncture of history, NATO stands at the crossroads. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict since February 2022 is not only a threat to European security but has potential to convert into another global war. The Ukraine conflict has questioned the very post-cold war expansion of NATO. Yet it is not looking back as it has added Finland as its 31st member, which shares long land boundary with Russia. Apart from internal dissentions and its viability to defend smaller new members, NATO has to navigate a difficult terrain of its relations with UN security framework. Besides, NATO has to consider that Europe cannot sustain its economic wellbeing amidst prolonged security concerns and regional conflicts. It has implications for the rethink on NATO security strategy for Europe and North Atlantic both. Russia is a major power in Eurasia, with security concerns in Europe and Asia both. The modern history of Europe teaches that Russia cannot be excluded from any viable security architecture for Europe. The need for hour is not to confront Russia, but engage with it for a viable security framework for Europe.
REFERENCES
Daadler, Ivo H (2023) NATO, the UN and use of Force. Brookings. Available At: https://www.brookings.edu/research/nato-the-un-and-the-use-of-force/
Gazzini, Tarcisio (2003) NATO’s Role in Collective Security System. JSTOR. Available At: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26294275
Haass, Richard N (1997) Enlarging NATO: A Questionable Idea whose Time has Come. Brookings. Available At: https://www.brookings.edu/research/enlarging-nato-a-questionable-idea-whose-time-has-come/
Menon, Rajan and William Ruger (2020) Enlargement of NATO and US grand strategy: net assessment. NIH. Available At: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7212247/
NATO (2023) NATO-Russia relations: the facts. NATO. Available At: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm
The North Atlantic Treaty (2023) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Available At: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm
UN (2023) United Nations Charter, Chapter VIII: Regional Arrangements. United Nations. Available At: https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-8
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