PSIR Simplified

China has been deepening her strategic footprints in South Asia since last three decades. First came the ‘String of Pearls’ Strategy in 1990s, which aimed to gain port facilities in India’s neighbourhood in the Indian Ocean region. It was followed by the BRI (a modified form of earlier Policy) in 2013, which aimed to develop connectivity  through ports and land routes and infrastructure facilities in India’s neighbouring countries. This time China scored considerable success in Pakistan (Gwadar Port) Sri Lanka (Humbantota), Nepal (proposal of Trans Himalayan Highway). Except India and Bhutan, all neighbouring countries of India subscribed to the BRI for various reasons. But still Bangladesh was spared.

Bangladesh did not so far fall prey to China’s BRI only because of Awami League rule, led by Sheikh Hasina In Bangladesh during 2009-2024. The domestic Policis of Bangladesh has deep bearing on its relations with India. There are two main political parties in Bangladesh- Awami League, and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).  Awami League Party played important role with assistance from India during liberation of Bangladesh in in 1970 and 1971. Awami league and its leaders still recognize India’s important contribution to liberation of Bangladesh and try to make close ties with India. They are also sensitive to India’s security concerns mainly arising from China. It was because of this fact that Sheikh Hasina cancelled in February, 2016 the contract with China for the development of deep sea Sonadia port of Bangladesh in Bay of Bengal.

The BNP is opposed to Awami League not only in in domestic politics, but in foreign policy. Hence, the BNP tries to develop close ties with bot Pakistan and China. Another party called Jamaat-e-Islami, active in Bangladesh is follows religious extremism and also largely support the line of BNP in foreign policy. This domestic dynamics, prevailing in Bangladesh can be used to explain the trajectory of Indo-Bangladesh relations since Bangladesh became and independent nation in 1971.

Change in Government and Entry of China

Following a violent student movement in Bangladesh (June-August 2024) the Awami League government collapsed on 5 August, 2024 and  its leader and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made emergency landing in India on the same day. After the downfall of Sheikh Hasina, a transitional government led by Mohammad Yunus remained in power till the new government of BNP led by Tarique Rahman was installed following the new elections in February, 2026. During the rule of transitional government, Bangladesh mended its ties with Pakistan.

Tarique Rahman Visits  China

The new BNP government’ led by Tarique Rahman is following pro-China policy. India extended invitation to him to visit India. But breaking the past tradition, Tarique Rahman made his maiden visit to Malaysia and China (22-26 June, 2026). During his china visit, China and Bangladesh agreed on the following projects:

1. Bangladesh-Myanmar- China Trilateral Highway- Both countries agreed to develop this trilateral high way passing very close to India. in fact, this highway was proposed by China as BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) in 2013, but India declined to participate in this project due to her strategic concerns with China. Now China is trying to revive this highway without India.
2. Teesta Water Management Project-  Teesta river originates in the India state of Sikkim and flows to Bangladesh through the Indian state of West Bengal. During Hasina regime, Bangladesh wat trying to sign agreement with India for sharing of waters of Teesta river, but  due to opposition by the then Chief Minister of West Bengal, Mamta Banerjee, the agreement could not be signed. Now Tarique Rahman has invited China to launch  new project for the storage of Teesta river waters in northern Bangladesh. The proposed project site of this project is very close to India’s Siliguri Corridor (Chicken Neck), narrow corridor linking mainland India with her North-Eastern states.
3. Agreement on Mongla Port Economic Zone- Both countries signed the Agreement under which state-owned Chinese company, China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation will develop an Economic Zone at the strategically important Mongla port, located in the Bay of Bengal. It should be noted that earlier this contract for economic zone was given to an Indian company.

Map: Courtesy: Vajiram and Ravi

These projects would facilitate China’s strategic entry into Bangladesh, which had so far escaped from China’s strategic design. This has raised security concerns in India, as China would be present in the Eastern boundary of Inia. In view of occasional political instability in North-Eastern states, this concern assumes significance.