On August 7, 2026, Pakistan signed the ‘Mecca Joint Defense Agreement’ in collaboration with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This agreement functions as a NATO-style military alliance, as it stipulates that an external attack on any member nation will be considered an attack on all three. In principle and legal terms, this implies that should a war break out between India and Pakistan in the future, Saudi Arabia and Turkey would provide military assistance to Pakistan. This is a matter of concern for India, given the persistent possibility of military confrontation between the two nations. Even in the absence of actual military conflict, Pakistan could derive strategic benefits from this alliance and potentially overcome its diplomatic isolation.
What Lessons does history hold for Pakistan?
It is often said that history never repeats itself. While this may hold true for specific historical events, it does not apply to the lessons derived from them; historical lessons often recur across different events. Consequently, drawing only partial lessons from history is detrimental, but learning nothing at all is far worse. Pakistan appears to be making precisely this mistake with the Mecca military alliance.
This is not the first time that Pakistan has joined a military alliance. At the height of the Cold War, on February 24, 1955, Pakistan signed a military alliance known as the Baghdad Pact alongside Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Britain. Later, after Iraq withdrew from the alliance in 1959, it was renamed CENTO (Central Treaty Organization). This alliance also contained a provision stating that an external military attack on one member would be deemed an attack on all, requiring a collective response. It was due to its membership in this military alliance that Pakistan could not join the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), as a primary condition for NAM membership was that a country must not be part of any military alliance.
The fundamental objective of this military alliance was to contain the communist influence of the Soviet Union (present-day Russia) in West Asia. However, Pakistan’s primary aim was to leverage the alliance to achieve military parity with India and to strategically encircle it.
Pakistan also signed another military alliance called SEATO or South East Asia Treaty Organization in 1954 with the US and other countries.
The testing moment for CENTO and SEATO arrived in 1971 during the major war between India and Pakistan over the independence of Bangladesh. Pakistan had hoped that its allies within the CENTO or SEATO alliance would provide military assistance; however, no member nation stepped forward to help. While the United States did initially attempt to threaten India in support of Pakistan, it backed down once Russia came out in support of India. Pakistan was forced to fight India alone. In addition to suffering a humiliating defeat in the war, Pakistan lost the territory of Bangladesh.
The SEATO was disbanded in 1977. The CENTO was subsequently dissolved in 1979. Pakistan became disillusioned with military alliances and joined the Non-Aligned Movement in 1979, an organization that has always opposed such military pacts.
More than four decades have passed since CENTO was dissolved, it appears Pakistan has forgotten a crucial historical lesson: that possessing one’s own capabilities is essential for national security. Consequently, on August 7, 2026, Pakistan joined a new alliance known as the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement. While the military capabilities of the three member nations in the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement complement one another, their respective objectives differ. Saudi Arabia is concerned about both Iran and Israel; Turkey is seeking to expand its strategic influence in the region while also looking for a major market for its defense industry; meanwhile, Pakistan aims to achieve military parity with India by using this agreement to strategically hedge against it.
Since its inception, Pakistan’s desire to achieve parity with India has been so intense that it has consistently sought the backing of external powers—ranging from CENTO in the 1950s and 1960s, the United States in the 1970s and 1980s, and subsequently China since 1990s and now current Mecca Agreement. The dream of attaining parity with India dominates the mindset of Pakistan’s policymakers to such an extent that they have never been able to objectively interpret either their policies or their history.
An individual or a nation clouded by prejudice can never derive the right lessons from history.
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