Iran faced widespread devastation when the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on February 28, 2026. The initial assault claimed the lives of several leaders and top military officials, including Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Subsequently, the continuous warfare that lasted until April 7, 2026, resulted in massive loss of life and property in Iran.
In retaliation, Iran transformed the nature of the conflict by launching drone and missile attacks against Israel and Persian Gulf nations such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. Iran argued that these Gulf states provided military facilities to the US. Regardless, the US failed to ensure the security of its allies in the Gulf.
Another strategic move by Iran was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused oil prices to surge in the global market and disrupted oil supplies. To exert pressure on Iran, the US has imposed a naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman to intercept Iranian vessels. Overall, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Adopting a policy of “maximum pressure,” the US has imposed various stringent economic and military sanctions against Iran. Yet, despite the war and these sanctions, Iran has managed to preserve its political stability. Iran’s very survival constitutes a victory, given that the US is the world’s foremost military power.
Hopes for a Ceasefire and Agreement
A ceasefire between the two sides came into effect on April 8, 2026. Under this framework, an agreement was reached on June 17, 2026—mediated by Pakistan—to conclude a permanent pact between Iran and the US within 60 days; however, no such agreement materialized by September 30, 2026. Due to deep-seated differences between the two, the likelihood of an agreement in the near future remains low. Meanwhile, sporadic military strikes have also occurred between the two sides.
How is the US’s strategic influence in West Asia diminishing due to the conflict with Iran?
1-The primary objectives of the US attack on Iran were to bring about regime change in Iran’s Islamic government and to destroy its military capabilities, thereby compelling it to agree to terms regarding nuclear weapons. However, the US failed to achieve either of these objectives. A consequence of this failure was that the US President repeatedly altered the war’s objectives. Even after the killing of its Supreme Leader, Iran has succeeded in preserving its Islamic regime and has garnered substantial support from China and Russia. Iran has also maintained a hardline stance regarding the handover of nuclear fuel.
2- Prior to the US attack launched on February 28, 2026, under “Operation Epic Fury,” the Strait of Hormuz was open; however, following the US military action, Iran closed the strait as a strategic weapon. Despite numerous efforts—including a military blockade of Iran—the US has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, a global oil crisis has emerged. It is noteworthy that 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a strategic defeat for the US, and nations across the globe are criticizing the US for this situation.
3- Since the end of World War II, the United States has consistently provided security guarantees to Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar. The US Fifth Fleet is stationed in Manama, Bahrain, and the US also maintains military facilities in other Gulf countries. Despite this, when Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Gulf nations in retaliation for US actions, the US failed to provide them with adequate protection. Furthermore, when Iran-backed Houthi rebels began attacking Saudi Arabia in September 2026, the US refused to provide air defense support despite Saudi Arabia’s request. These events have shaken the Gulf nations’ confidence in US security commitments. An immediate consequence has been the intensification of efforts to establish regional security frameworks in West Asia independent of the United States. On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed the ‘Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,’ which stipulates that an external attack on any one of the three nations will be considered an attack on all of them, and that the three countries will jointly confront such aggression. Consequently, the US’s strategic position in West Asia is likely to weaken in the future.
4- President Trump is facing opposition on the domestic front as well due to the war with Iran. In the US, this is being viewed not as a necessary conflict but as a “war of choice.” America’s direct expenditure on the Iran war has risen to $43 billion, and its weapons reserves have been depleted. Observers predict that this war could lead to Trump’s defeat in the Congressional midterm elections in November 2026. Should this happen, the Trump administration would be reduced to a minority in the US Congress.
5- The clearest evidence of America’s weakening position in West Asia is its withdrawal of troops from Iraq on September 30, 2026—an event being celebrated in Iraq as a victory for independence. US forces were first deployed in Iraq in 2003, when President Bush—having labeled Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as the “Axis of Evil”—initiated military action against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. A corollary to this withdrawal is the likely expansion of Iranian influence in Iraq; the pro-Iran Shia group Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) is currently highly active and holds a strong position there. There are 2,40000 persons working in the heavily armed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF have conducted more than 600 military operations against US forces in Iraq during the ongoing Iran war since February, 2026. Thus, after the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, the Iran supported PMF would be in a very strong position. Consequently, rather than weakening, Iran is poised to become even stronger in the region. It is worth noting that the Shia population constitutes approximately 60 percent of Iraq’s total population.
The aforementioned facts make it evident that America’s strategic position in West Asia is bound to weaken following the war with Iran. Trump Administration has badly entangled in Iran war and there is no respectable escape.
Image courtesy : the Pioneer
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