Following are the main challenges to the global nuclear power control regime.
1.Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
After nuclear P-5 countries (UK, US, Russia, France and China), many other countries have also developed nuclear weapon capability. India conducted her first nuclear test in 1974 and followed by another test in 1998 to address the nuclear threats in the region posed by nuclear China and clandestine nuclear programme of Pakistan. India says that it wants to keep its nuclear option open. Pakistan has conducted her first nuclear test in 1998. North Korea withdrew from NPT and conducted her first nuclear tests. Israel is also another potential nuclear power but has restrained from admitting the same. Iran’s nuclear programme is also suspected to be not entirely peaceful, though Iran claims it to be peaceful. This proliferation of nuclear weapons in states like North Korea and Pakistan has raised new concerns. North Korea is a rogue state and has persistent tensions South Korea and is actively supported by China and Russia. Its irresponsible behaviour and mistrust with South Korea may result in use of nuclear weapons. The weak and volatile political system of Pakistan may not be able to prevent nuclear weapons going in the hands of powerful terrorist groups. The Dual use nature of nuclear technology further makes it hard to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapon technology and materials. Many countries are shifting towards nuclear power as a source of clean energy, which has ample scope for the transfer to nuclear technology in coming decades.
2. Ongoing Conflicts and threats of Nuclear Weapons- In the ongoing conflicts like Ukraine war, Israel-US attack on Iranian nuclear weapons or recent conflict between India and Pakistan, at least one party is a nuclear power. The more dangerous situation has emerged in Ukraine where Russia is confronted by the US and European military assistance to Ukraine. The US, France and UK are the nuclear powers. In view of these developments, Russia has officially changed her policy of no-use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear power state by claiming that a non-nuclear power (Ukraine) is supported by nuclear powers, she is not bound to adhere to the policy of no- use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states. The modified official document indicates ‘a wider range of contingencies that might trigger nuclear weapons use, especially in regard to non-nuclear weapons threats to Russia and its allies, and appears to lower the threshold for nuclear use’. During Operation Sindoor launched by India against Pakistan and even before and after that Pakistan has been flaunting her nuclear status and threat of nuclear war with India. The US-Israel attack on nuclear facilities of Iran in June, 2025 might have resulted in major leak of radiation from enriched Uranium stocked by Iran.
3. Technological Developments- The new technological development like the Computer simulation and AI have made the ban of testing redundant as nuclear weapons can be tested and refined in the laboratory. In this condition, it is very difficult to detect and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton has warned recently in September, 2025 that anyone in the street can make a nuclear bomb with the help of AI.
4. Lack of Trust and Polarization among Major Powers- Never in the post-cold war era, the level of trust among major powers have been so low and polarization so high as it is now. Ukraine war has generated new wave pf polarization as the US and European nations are aligned against Russia, which in turn is supported by China, North Korea and Iran. This is the reason that at present there is no binding agreement between the US and Russia to limit any sort of nuclear weapons. The New Start treaty only remains on paper without commitment from either side to adhere to its mandate.
Conclusion
There is no second thought that nuclear weapons have more destructive and lasting consequences. The nuclear arms control regimes evolved over eight decades has two dimensions. Its multilateral dimension focused on ban on testing, preventing non-proliferation and deployment of nuclear weapons in certain areas. The bilateral nuclear regime was evolved in the forms of certain agreements between the US and Russia (Which together hold 90 percent of global nuclear weapons) like SALT mechanism, INF, and Starts treaties, but at present none of them is in force. In Addition, the prolonging Ukraine war and other conflicts; lack of trust among major powers and growing polarization among nations, revision of nuclear doctrine by Russia, continuous proliferation of nuclear weapons among new states like Pakistan and North Korea have posed new challenges before the global nuclear arms control regime. It has raised new concerns and possibilities for the use of nuclear weapons either by design or by chance in the present context. SPIRI (2025) has also warned ‘that a dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened’.
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