tStrategically, Middle East is not only an important region, but also the most complex region of the world. The complicated strategic contours of Middle East are primarily shaped by interaction between three sets strategic factors.
First, geographically the Middle East lies at the strategic border point between Asia and Europe, saddling important global trade routes through Suez Canal. The Bab al Mandeb, Gulf of Aden and Hormuz strait are the important choke points impacting upon the security of this sea routes. Approximately 12 percent of global trade and 30 percent of global container traffic traverse the Suez, transporting over USD $1 trillion worth of goods per annum, which is four times the tonnage transiting the Panama Canal. It enables the transfer of an estimated 7-10 percent of the world’s oil and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas. The Gulf of Aden and the Somali Coast below it are the areas infected with problem of piracy. China, India and other major powers have deployed their naval forces to address the security of sea routes in the region. The security of these trade routes is major security concern of global community. In the wake of Gaza war, the Iran supported Houthi rebels based in Yemen has threatened the trade ships in support of Palestinians. Beginning with November, 2023, they have attacked 40 ships and have threatened the trade routes through red sea (Al Jazeera: 2024). The US and its allies have launched 10 nations Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect the Red Sea shipping route in December, 2023. It has bombed the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen and attacked Houthi vessels in the Red Sea (The Wire: 2023). India too has dispatched extra naval ships to secure these trade routes. As Gaza war is still going on, the trade routes are under threat disrupting the normal shipping and trade through the region.
Second, it is rich in natural resources like oil and natural gas, which have been the main source of energy for nearly a century. The Middle East contains 48.3 percent of the total 1229 thousand million barrel global proven oil reserves. World’s leading oil producing countries are located in this region: Saudi Arabia with 15 percent of global reserves, Iran with 9 percent, Iraq with 8.5 percent Kuwait with 8 percent and UAE with 7.9 per cent of the global oil reserves (N S Energy: 2019). The rich oil and gas resources of the region have been the factor for the growth and prosperity of the region. But at the same time, they have also led the involvement of major global powers in the region since the WWII.
The third core element of Middle East is its religious composition giving rise to many inter-religious and intra-religious and conflicts and tensions in the region. The Middle East is the origin place of the three important religions: Islam, Judaism and Christianity. With the establishment of Israel (a Jew State) in the region called Palestine led to most complicated conflict of this century. The politico-religious conflict between Jews and Muslims took the shape of Arab-Israel conflict on the land which is claimed by Palestinians, who in turn are supported by co-religious Arab countries. Israel is supported by the US and European powers. This has resulted in four major Arab Israel wars-1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 and a number of military conflicts between the two on continuous basis. The ongoing Gaza war since October, 2023 is the latest in the series of such perpetual conflicts. It threatened the peace and stability in the region. The involvement of US and her European Allies on the side of Israel and Iran and other countries supporting Hamas rebels, the conflict has potential to spill over in the entire region.
The region also has witnessed intra-religious conflicts and tensions for many decades. The internal religious fault line along Shia-Sunni differences has crystallized into regional rivalry between Iran, the abode of Shia Islam on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and its supporters, which are the flag bearers of Sunni Islam on the other. Iran with its much-hyped nuclear power and carefully nurtured regional Shia militant organizations (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Houthis in Yemen and similar groups in Iraq) has posed a great challenge to Saudi Arabia for regional hegemony in the Middle East. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been a dominant strategic pattern of the Middle East particularly since the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 (Mirza et all: 2021). Though China led mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 has raised prospects of reconciliation, but many contentious issues like the status of Houthis are yet to be resolved.
Involvement of Global Powers
This three-dimensional strategic importance of Middle East has invited the attention of global powers like US, European powers, Russia and China in different forms and combinations. As a result, since the World War II, the Middle East has faced three decisive strategic shifts caused by three events: formation of Israel in 1948, leading to permanent Arab-Israel conflict; Iranian revolution in 1979, leading to perpetual confrontation between Iran and US on the one hand and Iran and Saudi Arabia on the other; and American withdrawal and entry of China in last few years. China supports Iran and has developed trade and investment stakes in Iran as well as Saudi Arabia. China has also established its first naval base in 2017 in Djibouti. Russia and China are following the common strategy to counter US influence in the region.
The US has been staunch supporter of Israel, which in turn has been in conflict with Arab States. The US, being the largest producer of oil , is not dependent on Middle East oil now, yet it needs its strategic influence in the region to protect its global and regional interests in the Middle East, like security of trade routes, countering China’s strategic inroads and maintaining its strategic position as a global power. In order to manage its strategic interests in the region, the US has followed two-pronged strategy in the region. First, it has tried to counter and isolate Iran in the region which has been a major challenge to US policies since Iranian Revolution in 1979. The Obama administration tried to co-opt Iran and dilute its nuclear ambition by signing 2015 civil nuclear agreement with Iran, but this agreement was abrogated by Trump Administration in July 2018. Now, Biden has no option that to counter Iran by other means. Second, in order to protect its position, the US has been trying to promote reconciliation between Israel and Arab states. This US policy witnessed some success in 1979 when Egypt and Israel signed peace treaty known as Camp David Accord mediated by the US. Later Jordon also signed peace treaty with Israel in 1994. The latest episode of this strategy came in the form of Abraham accords between Israel and four Arab countries- UAE, Morocco, Bahrain and Sudan in 2020-21. These accords were mediated by the US. But this US strategy has faced new challenges in 2023:
1. The economically and politically most powerful Arab state namely Saudi Arabia has not signed Abraham Accord so far.
2. China led reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia has further reduced the possibility of further progress of US strategy.
3. The recent Gaza conflict since October, 2023 has stopped the path of Abraham accord as most of the Arab states are against the Israel’s mindless attack against civilians in Gaza, supported by the US. The question of Palestine and Arab-Israel conflict once again has assumed prominence in the region and the US has not been able to manage this conflict.
India and the Middle East
In view of the above complicated strategic environment and rising polarization between major powers in the Middle East, India’s ongoing balancing strategy has come under strains in recent year, which may undermine India’s core interests in the region, which have evolved over time since India’s independence. India articulated her Arab-Israel policy in view of her own background of colonialism as well as he vital and evolving interests in the region. At present, India has following core interests in the region:
First, India has been dependent on import of oil and gas and majority of this is imported from Arab countries. The Arab countries of Middle East are largest producers of oil and natural gas in the world. Even in the face of climate change crisis and demand for renewable energy sources as well as India’s efforts to diversify energy sources, this dependency on Middle East for supply of oil and gas is likely to persist in near future. The Gulf region fulfilled 55.3pwercent of India’s total crude oil demand in 2022–23, compared to 63.9 percent in 2021–22. However, in view of the decreasing crude supplies from Russia, levels of Middle Eastern oil supplies to India are likely to rise in the medium term (Solanki:2024). In February, 2024, India has signed a US$78 billion agreement with Qatar to imports 7.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas annually for an additional 20 years, starting in 2028.
Second, according to one estimate, India’s 8.8 million skilled, semi-skilled and un-skilled persons are working in Arab countries. These workers are source of nearly $ 75 billion foreign exchange for India. The welfare and safety of India’s citizens working in the region is the priority of India’s foreign policy.
Third, India has substantial portion of Muslim community. Majority of the countries of the Middle East area are also Islamic nations. Thus, any difference with these countries has impact on India also.
Fourth, In the post-cold war era since last one decade, India has developed close economic ties with Middle East Countries in terms of trade and investment. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is India’s largest regional-bloc trading partner. Trade with the GCC is 15.8 percent of India’s total trade in 2022–23, compared to 11.6 percent of total trade with the European Union. The UAE has consistently been India’s principal trading partner within the Gulf and is India’s third-largest trading partner overall, with Saudi Arabia in fourth place. India and EU have signed Free trade agreement in 2022. The Middle East countries mainly UAE and Saudi Arabia have emerged as India’s leading source of foreign investment in recent years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced ambitious investment targets of $100bn and $75bn, respectively. The UAE is the seventh-largest source of foreign direct investment in India, with 15.3 billion investments so far, followed by. Saudi Arabia $3.2 billion till March, 2022, and Qatar with $1.5 billion. Indian, Saudi Arabian and Emirati oil companies are developing Ratanagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals project in Maharashtra with the total investment of $44 billion (Solanki: 2024).
Fifth, with growing economic interest in the Middle East in post-cold war era, India’s strategic interests too have become prominent in the region. These strategic interests are mainly two types: Security of the trade routes passing through Red Sea and Suez Canal and development of connectivity projects through the Middle East. The Security of trade routes have three concerns for India; the problem of piracy in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Oman, the presence of China in Gwadar and Djibouti, and the recent threats posed by Houthi rebels of Yemen. In order to address these security concerns Indian navy is present in the region since 2007. Also India has developed close strategic ties with the Middle East countries. The Indian Navy has initiated bilateral exercises with the UAE in 2018, with Qatar in 2019, and with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in 2021. The Indian Army held its first exercises with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in January and February 2024. The UAE and Oman are the only regional countries with which India holds army, air force and navy exercises. As a sign of growing strategic trust, India and the UAE have started trilateral military cooperation with France, holding a maritime exercise in 2023 and an air-force exercise in 2024 (Solanki: 2024).
India has tried to use Middle East region to develop connectivity network to Central Asia, Moscow and Europe. India and Iran signed Chabahar port agreement in 2016, under which India would develop Chabahar port to gain connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia through land routes. India is also part of 7200 kms International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), launched in 2000 linking Moscow with Mumbai through Central Asia and Iran. During G-20 Summit, India and seven other partners- US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Germany, France Italy and EU have signed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) on 10 September, 2023, which will link India’s Mumbai and Mundara ports with Europe through Middle East (UAE and Saudi Arabia) and Israel. These connectivity projects India’s strategic stakes in the Middle East.
Post-Cold war Shift in India’s Middle East Policy
In view of above facts, traditionally India has been staunch supporters of Arab countries and Palestine state since the beginning of Arab-Israel conflict in 1948. The conflict originated when Israel was established in 1948 on the same land which is also claimed by Palestinians as their homeland. The Palestinian claim for homeland has been actively and vehemently supported by Arab countries of the region. This has led to four major wars between Arabs and Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973. In addition, Palestinians and Israel have also been engaged in several military conflicts from time to time. The present conflict between Hamas (extremist faction of Palestinians) and Israel is just new examples of such conflicts, which became more prominent after Hamas captured Gaza in 2006.
Close Ties with Israel
Though India recognized the state of Israel when it was created in 1948, India did not establish full diplomatic relations with Israel in support of Palestine cause. During all the four Arab-Israel wars mentioned above, India extended political support to Arab countries.PLO or Palestine Liberation Organization was fighting for the establishment of Palestine state. India was the first non-Arab country to recognition to PLO in 1974. Also much before the 1993 Oslo Accord between Israel and PLO, India recognized state of Palestine in 1988.
The peace process between Israel and PLO began in early 1990s and culminated in the signing of Oslo Accord, which facilitated the establishment of Palestine state in West bank and Gaza Strip. On the other hand, the PLO also recognized Israel as an independent state. However, the extremist faction of Palestinians organized under the banner of Hamas in 1988 did not recognize Israel, creating ground for the present-day conflict between Israel and Hamas based in Gaza. However, this peace process gave India an opportunity to develop full diplomatic relations in 1992. Since then India and Israel have developed close ties in the field of defence and security and agriculture, water management and irrigation. Israel has emerged as an important source for India for the supply of advanced defence equipment and intelligence cooperation. In 2017, Modi has become the first Prime Minister of India to visit Israel. Israeli PM Netanyahu has also made two visits to India during this period. Thus, both India and Israel have cultivated close ties in last two decades.
India’s Balancing game in the Middle East: New Challenges
Meanwhile India also developed close and strategic ties with major Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iran in last two decades. Trade and investment ties were developed with UAE and Saudi Arabia. This was facilitated as these countries did not raise any issue of India’s close ties with Israel. Also, there were moves to reconcile between Arab countries and Israel, while the issue of Palestine was still pending. These efforts bore fruit in 2020-21 when with the mediation of the US, four Arab countries namely UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan signed peace accord with Israel. These peace accords are known as Abraham Accord, after the name of Abraham, who is recognized as common ancestor of Jews, Christians and Muslims. The Abraham Accord helped India to balance ties between Israel and Arab countries. India, Israel, UAE and the US also founded another regional body named as I2U2 in 2021 to promote investment and development in the Middle East. In order to rope in Saudi Arabia in this reconciliation process, the US and India announced during the G-20 summit in September, 2023 the launch of India Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India and Europe and passing through UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel. These measures facilitated India balancing game between Israel on the one hand and Arab countries on the other.
The first Challenge to India’s balancing game in the Middle East came in 2018, when the US administration abrogated Iranian nuclear deal and imposed fresh sanctions against Iran. Iran has been a major supplier of oil for India. While India somehow managed to retain Chabahar deal with Iran, it had to stop import of oil from Iran. This situation continues even today.
This challenge has resurfaced again in the form of US/Israel war with Iran since February, 2026. Just few days before the start of war, Indian PM Modi made historic visit to Israel. Now India has to balance her ties with Iran on the one hand and the US and Israel on the other hand. India has strategic interests in both sides of the combination. In this balancing game, some observers feel that India has displayed distinct tilt towards the US-Israel combine. This may create problem for India’s Chabahar project, which is strategically important for India to develop connectivity with Afghanistan and larger Central Asia.
The second occasion of challenge to India’s balancing game came when Hamas attacked on Israel on 7 October, 2023 and retaliatory attack by Israel on Gaza killing more than 30000 Palestinians and creating monumental humanitarian crisis. This incident not only shattered the ongoing peace process between Israel and Arab states, but also created new strategic fault lines between the two sides. It is this crisis which has made India’s balancing game between the two sides a difficult task. On the one hand, India has close strategic ties with Israel and US, but India too has vital national interests in the Middle East, which calls for close cooperation with Arab countries. India’s principled stand opposing all forms of terrorism further complicates the balancing game as India has treated the attack by Hamas against Israel as a terrorist attack. But at the same time, India cannot close its eyes to the disproportionate and massive assault by Israel killing 30000 civilians and rendering lakhs of people as homeless and blocking the humanitarian assistance in Gaza. During the G-20 meet, India projected herself as the champion of voice of Global South, but in this case majority of the Global South countries are critical of Israel’s disproportionate military action against Palestinians and hence have called for immediate ceasefire by Israel. This was the message of two UN General Assembly Resolution on 26 October, 2023 and 12 December, 2023. While in the first resolution, India abstained but it supported the second resolution passed on 12 December.
During Gaza conflict, India has shown its sympathy with Israel as India has not openly criticized Israel for its disproportionate attack in Gaza against civilian population. However, tensions between Israel and other countries mainly Iran creates tough choice before India. According to one keen observer, ‘if New Delhi cannot insulate itself from the ongoing Israeli-Iranian tensions, then no amount of hedging, or talking to both sides, or switching between strategic initiatives will bring its ambitions to fruition. Its involvement with both, in fact, exposes its investments to the risk of armed conflict’ (Duffy: 2023).
Conclusion
India has many important economic and strategic interests in the Middle East region. Over the decades, India’s core interests have expanded from the supply of energy to include economic and strategic interests in the post-cold war era. Traditionally India followed the strong pro-Arab policy in the Israel-Palestine conflict during cold war. But as tensions eased between Israel and Palestinians in 1990s following the Oslo Accord, India too developed close strategic ties with Israel since 1992. Thus, for three decades India has successfully played balancing game between two sides by developing close ties Middle East countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran on the one side and having close ties with Israel and the US on the other. The US led efforts like Abraham Accords and I2U2 mechanism supported India’s balancing tasks. But since last October, beginning with Gaza conflict, the fault lines have widened between Muslim Middle East countries and Israel. Meanwhile, China too has made strategic initiative to normalize relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. This has complicated strategic conditions of Middle East. As an outcome of these developments, India’s balancing game in the Middle East needs a fresh look to effectively protect India’s core interests in the region.
REFERENCES
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Duffy, Seamus (2023) Amidst War and Uncertainty India’s Middle East Interests Evolve. The Diplomat, 26 October, 2023. Available At: https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/amid-war-and-uncertainty-indias-middle-east-interests-evolve/
Mirza, Muhammad Nadeem, Hussain Abbas, and Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani (2021) Structural Sources of Saudi–Iran Rivalry and Competition for the Sphere of Influence. Sage Open, Sage journals. Available At: ttps://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211032642
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