There is no need to emphasize the fact that the climate change crisis is a major global challenge of our times. However, the climate change crisis is insurmountable, once it crosses the threshold. It threatens not only our present generations but also the future of entire humanity. The impacts of climate change, once set in, are not reversible in the short run. The assessment of the global warming trends and their likely adverse consequences is made by the UN agency the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its six Assessment Reports published respectively in the years 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007, 2014 and 2021. The gist of these reports is that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 degree centigrade in last 100 years but it is likely to increase by 0.3 C per annum in 21st century. The Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report made modest warning, ‘Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems’. But the First part of the Sixth Assessment Report (Part One) released in August, 2021 makes stern warning that the poised is to breach the temperature limit of 1.5 degree centigrade in 2040 and 2 degree Celsius in 2050 in comparison to preindustrial age (1850). Hence the Report calls for the net-zero carbon emission by the year 2050 to avoid this catastrophic breach. Its other findings are: rapid rise in sea level; hot extreme; extreme precipitation and droughts. The last decade was the hottest decade in last 125000 years and the world has already depleted 86 percent of its safe carbon budget. Thus, climate change is not the disaster in waiting, but it is already knocking at the door as seen from the rising temperature in cold regions like Europe, fast melting of ice sheets at poles, erratic weather, leading to extreme unseasonal rains and drought. The poor and developing countries are more vulnerable to climate due to their limited adoption capacity. And similar is the case of poor people within a country.
Climate Change Negotiations
The UNFCCC: The climate change negotiations are being held under the UNFCC- United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change, which is non-binding convention passed by the UN General Assembly in 1992.
This Convention has 26 Articles, which articulates basic objectives, mechanism of global consultation and the guiding principles to this mechanism:
Article 2 mentions the objective of the convention: ‘The ultimate objective of this convention is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved with a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.’ In practical terms, this means that global mean temperature should not be allowed to exceed 20 C above the pre-industrial level that is year 1850.
Article 7 of the convention establishes a mechanism called Conference of Parties (COP) which shall be highest decision making and supervisory body under the convention.
The most important principle of this convention is listed in Article 3(1), which states: ‘The particles would protect the climate system for the benefit of the present and future generation of mankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed countries parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.’ The corollary of this principle is the idea of ‘Historical Responsibility’ of rich countries to contribute to the global efforts as they were the prime contributor to global warming and greenhouse gas emission so far.
Progress of Climate Change Negotiations
Under the auspices of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Conference of Parties or COP is held on annual basis. These negotiations are consensus driven, meaning that the decisions in these negotiations shall be arrived at by consensus of all parties and not by the majority principle. This has both positive and consequences. Positively, it means that neither side (developed countries or developing countries) will be able to impose its decision on other. Also, the decisions agreed to by all shall be adhered to by all. Negatively, the negotiations have less chances of success given the divergence of opinion on major issues between developing countries and developed countries. Also, if the consensus is arrived, the final outcome will be significantly watered down.
The first climate change negotiations were held in 1995 in Berlin, Germany. These negotiations have been held regularly on annual basis with one exception in 2020 when negotiations were not held due to Covid-19. The 30th negotiations were held in Belem in Brazil in 2025 and 31st negotiations are to be held in Antalya, Turkey. Some of the major successes of these negotiations are:
A. Kyoto Protocol, 1997- The Kyoto Protocol5 signed in 1997, consists of 28 Articles. Article 3 of the protocol committed developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by at least 5 percent below 1990 in the period 2008-12. However, the U.S. has not ratified this protocol so far and majority of the developed countries have failed to fulfill their promises under this protocol.
B. Bali Road Map and Action Plan, 2007- The 13th COP, held in 2007 in Bali, Indonesia adopted Bali Road Map and Action Plan, which called on the negotiators to reach an agreement limiting global warming to 2 degree Celsius above the preindustrial temperature. Global warming is simply a symptom of the magnitude of climate change and it is a reasonable limit to prevent dangerous climate change. Due to intransigent outlook of the developed countries particularly the U.S.A., the rich countries could not commit to any fresh targets for greenhouse gases emissions. Finally, the participant countries agreed to continue with climate change negotiations and finalize new measures beyond 2012 (post-Kyoto) in future negotiations. Since then, following rounds of climate negotiations have been held without much success in evolving a post-Kyoto climate change regime.
C. Paris Agreement, 2015- The Paris Agreement on Climate Change was adopted during the 21st COP held in Paris. It is the milestone in the Climate Change efforts as for the first time, the state parties were asked to announce the self-binding commitments for carbon reduction. The historic Paris Agreement was signed on 12 December 2015 as the 195 countries arrived at consensus on the text of proposed agreement. The Agreement has 29 Articles. The main points of this Agreement are discussed below:
1. The target of capping global temperature below 2 degree centigrade to the level pre-industrial age (1850) has been adjusted to the 1.5 degree centigrade in view of the severe climate change conditions visible in different parts of the globe.
2. The capacities of the countries will be enhanced to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change so that nations are better equipped to face the challenges of climate change. It was also provided that the means of clean energy shall be adopted in a manner that does not adversely affect the production of food grains in the world.
3. The developed countries would provide $100 billion fund over and above their development aid per year to the developing and poor countries for transition to clean energy resources. However, there is no mandatory provision to force the developed countries to contribute to this proposed fund.
4. Each party to the agreement shall submit their voluntary declared carbon reduction targets and plans to the UN for registration and shall implement the same effectively. These targets will be updated after every five years. However, there is no provision for binding penalties in case of non-fulfilment of these targets. These proposed targets are known as INDC- Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Accordingly, many countries have announced their voluntary targets. China has proposed to reduce its carbon emission to 60-65 percent in comparison to 2014 levels. The US has proposed that it will reduce its carbon emission to 32 percent to its 2005 levels. India has proposed net zero carbon by 2070.
Major Issues in Climate Negotiations
As the climate change negotiations have progressed, some controversial issues have marred the success of these negotiations. Broadly these issues relate to the differences in perception and interests of developed countries and developing countries. Being an active and regular participant in these negotiations, India has assiduously represented the cause of poor and developing countries in these negotiations.
Some of the important issues involved in climate change negotiations are mentioned below:
1. Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR): This principle is enshrined in UNFCCC (1992) and India insists that any future agreement of climate change should be based on this principle. This has been a measure issue in all COP held so far. This principle recognizes that the developed countries should make more contribution to climate change efforts. The ‘historical responsibility’ of developed countries results from this principle. The corollary of this principle is the idea of ‘Historical Responsibility’ of rich countries to contribute to the global efforts as they were the prime contributor to global warming and greenhouse gas emission so far. At present, the developed countries are insisting on the reinterpretation of this principle to incorporate binding commitment to all, though in different quantity depending upon the present capacity of different countries. Rich countries demand that emerging economies like India and China should also make matching contribution along with them as their capacity to contribute has been enhanced in 21st century. In brief, the developed countries want to dilute this principle without declining to accept it in the name of its reinterpretation in the changed context in 21st century.
2. The Mitigation Vs Adaptation – There has been controversy regarding the priority assigned to mitigation or adaptation in the proposed climate change measures. The Mitigation refers to those measures which have the effect of eliminating the root cause of climate change and global warming. On the other hand, Adaptation refers to those measures which are designed to address the effect of climate change on the poor developing countries or groups, which have been adversely affected by this. This is the most crucial aspect of proposed negotiations, where the views of developed and developing countries are opposed to each other. India and other developing countries particularly LDCs and small island developing countries demand that adaptation should be given priority over mitigation as poor countries are worst affected by the ill effects of climate change so far. The developed countries are in favour of priority given to mitigation measures.
3. Financial Arrangements –One of the major aspects of the proposed climate change negotiation is to make arrangement for funding the measures for fighting and preventing the consequences of climate change. The developing countries and India are demanding that the rich countries should provide adequate financial resources for implementing climate change measures due to their historical responsibility. The developed countries want that emerging economies should also make financial contribution. The developed countries committed to contribute $100 billion to the Global Green Fund, which was established during 18th COP held in Doha in 2012. However, it failed to take off. In fact, this is not the contribution of new funds, but simply diversion of Official Development Assistance (ODA) as climate change fund. A new Global Climate Fund of $100 billion has been created during the Paris Agreement in 2015.
4. Development and Transfer of Technology –Another important issue is the development and transfer of appropriate technology to the developing countries so that they can adapt mitigation and adaptation measures. The shift from fossil fuel -based economy to green economy requires considerable technological innovation and development. The poor countries hope that rich countries should commit to the prompt transfer of appropriate technology as these countries are not in a position to invest in the development of such technology. The developed countries are either in possession of or have the potential to develop clean technologies, but are reluctant to transfer the same without adhering to Intellectual Property rights conditions. India pleads for a liberal IPR regime for transfer of clean technology.
5. Per capita Vs Absolute Carbon Emission- Another controversial issue is the basis for measuring the level of carbon emission. India wants that this should be calculated on the basis of per capita carbon emission. Per Capita emission h is very low in India due to her huge population figures. However, the developed countries insist on measuring the absolute quantity of carbon emission and on this score, India is, at present, the third largest carbon emitter after the US and China. But if we go by the per capita emission, the story is different. In 2025, the global per capita per year carbon emission was 5.0 metric tons, whereas India’s Per Capita/per year carbon emission was 2.2. metric tons only. The comparative figures of per capita emission for the developed countries in 2025 are: UK-4.53, Canada-13, China-8.6, Germany-6.7, Japan-7.7, Russia-12.29, Australia-14.48 and US-14.42 metric tons. Arab Countries are much ahead of others in the per capita carbon emission. India’s share in the global carbon emission is just four percent in comparison to 16 percent each for both US and China. In order to hide this fact, the developed countries adopt the measure of gross emission of Carbon, but developing countries oppose it.
6. Bottom-Up Approach Vs Top-Down Approach: This controversy surfaced in 2013 and refers to the adoption of the approach to the proposed climate Change agreement. India and other developing countries are in favour of ‘Bottom-Up’ approach in which each country will voluntarily declare its target reduction in carbon emission as per her special circumstances and any gap left will be compensated by the developed countries as binding commitment under the norm of their historical responsibility to climate change. On the other hand, developed countries like UK Canada’ Germany, Australia etc. wanted to follow ‘Top Down’ approach in which the binding target of reduction in carbon emission to all countries shall be included in the future climate change agreement. The developed countries insist that the 2015 agreement must have uniform legal implication to all, but not uniformity of commitments. On the other hand, the developing countries insist that universality of application does not mean uniformity of application-a code word for differences between developing and developed countries on legal enforceability of targets. . Finally, the Bottom-Up Approach was adopted in 2015 Paris Agreement as it allows each country to declare its carbon reduction target as per its circumstances.
Thus, there is wide difference in the approaches adopted by the developed countries and the developing countries. Since the decisions in these negotiations are taken by consensus, many times the outcome remains limited.
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