PSIR Simplified

The military conflict in Ukraine is the most destructive conflict in Europe after the WWII in terms of its magnitude and involvement of major powers of Europe along with the US. Its roots are deeper than they they appear on the surface. Europe is the worst affected region during the WW both in terms of men and material.

After the WWII, the European countries adopted three set of steps to ensure peace stability and growth in Europe. First, for the promotion of democracy, rule of law and human rights, all the 46 countries of Europe came together and established Council of Europe for this purpose in 1949. Second,  in 1957, European countries came with the EEC (European Economic Community) for the economic growth , cooperation and integration in Europe. Third, in search of peace and security in Europe, they established North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)  in April, 1949, which was designed to provide collective security in Europe. The source of Threat was communist Soviet Union which exerted its influence till the Berlin in East Germany. These three-fold steps proved effective in Europe, which not only registered rapid economic growth but also ward off any major threat to peace and security for many decades.

The disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991 further altered the security architecture in Europe which was favourable in short run. This led to eastward expansion of NATO without any long term panning and strategic understanding. Since 1991, NATO included 14 members of East Europe and some break-away republics of former Soviet Union. All these members were either part of Soviet Union or under its influence. A weak Russia opposed such expansion on the ground of its own security concern. The biggest failure of NATO was that it failed to evolve a new security architecture of Europe after the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991 as it did neither accommodate Russia in the existing architecture or take into account its future military potential and assertiveness. The Ukraine crisis is nothing g but the outcome of this failure of NATO. The expansion of NATO is at the core of this war and also a major reason for war. Russia finds NATO’s expansion to it border as a security threat, which was never addressed by the European leaders.

Background of Ukraine War: A Chessboard of Global Powers

The present Ukraine conflict is not a sudden outburst. It has been building over the years. The background of Ukraine war unfolds the story as how Ukraine came in direct conflict with Russia on the issue of its proposed NATO membership. Ukraine, with a population of 4.4 crore was a republic/ province of former Soviet Union (now Russia). It became independent in 1991,  has been  a chess board for strategic rivalry between the European Union/NATO and the US on the one hand and Russia on the other. It is due to its strategic location at the buffer zone of influence between the two sides. Though, Ukraine officially maintained a neutral stand between the two sides but its military partnership programme with NATO in 1994 raised eyebrows in Russia, which did not like the reach of NATO to its border. The issue NATO membership has close bearing in the domestic politics of Ukraine, which has been contested between pro-Russian and Pro-west factions of Ukraine. The pro-west political groups want to align Ukraine with NATO and the West, but the pro-Russian factions have been trying to align Ukraine with Russia. The proxy involvement of Russia and the Western nations including the US in the domestic politics of Ukraine has made it more complex and guided  by external forces.

Thus,  both sides have been trying to drag Ukraine into their sphere of influence.  One such occasion came during Presidential elections of November, 2004 when pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych became officially victorious in the elections but faced the popular protests (Dec 2004-Jan 05) known as ‘Orange Revolution’,  for the allegation of rigging in the elections. The Orange Revolution was actively supported by the European countries and the US. Following the Orange Revolution, the Supreme Court of Ukraine ordered the revote. In  the revote held in December, 2004, the pro-West  candidate Viktor Yushchenko was declared victorious. However, he died soon in office due to alleged poisoning by Russian agents. Ukrain e applied for the NATO membership in 2008 under the influence of West and with the hope of getting security against Russia. But Russia objected to it as it would allow NATO forces to be deployed in Ukraine near its western border.

However, pro-Russian Victor Yanukovych became the President of Ukraine following the 2010 elections. He suspended the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement in 2013 at the instance of Russia. This agreement would have given larger say to European Union in Ukraine’s economy. But, it led to popular protests in February, 2014 allegedly supported by the Western countries. These protests are known as ‘Euromaidan Protests’ in which h nearly 100 people were killed. Following these protests, Victor Yanukovych had to leave the office and take shelter in Russia. He is living in Russia now. Thus Russia lost the political leverage in Ukrainian politics to tilt the balance in its favour. The US and the west were very happy with these developments.

As a reaction to the growing western influence in Ukraine, Russia took drastic step and captured Ukrainian territory Crimea in 2014, which is strategic area located the Black Sea. This was a loss for European powers and Ukraine. Russia conducted a plebiscite in Crimea and majority of the people supported its merger with Russia. Also Russia justified the occupation of Crimea on historical grounds. In fact, Crimea belonged to Russian Federation during Soviet era, but was given as gift to Ukraine in 1954. Now Russia wants it back. Following takeover of Crimea, the US and European Union imposed many sanctions against Russia, which are still in force in addition to the new sanctions imposed following the Ukraine war  since 24 February, 2022.

Also, there is Ethnic angle to Ukraine’s demography, which gives new stakes to Russia. It should be noted that out of the 41 million population of Ukraine, Ethnic Russians constitute 17.3 percent of the total population. Russia has also indirectly supported the Russian ethnic groups living in the eastern Ukraine. Following 2014 incidents, the ethnic Russians, mainly concentrated in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, started demanding greater autonomy/ independence from Ukraine. These separatists in the east are supported by Russia. Ukraine, Some European powers like France and Germany and Russia agreed to launch Minsk I(2014) and Minsk II (2015) to grant more autonomy to these provinces and  restore peace and stability in the area. But Ukraine’s nationalist elements did not want any autonomy to these provinces and they launched military operations against the separatists resulting in the death of nearly 14000 people in the conflict during 2014-2022. The neo-Nazi Azov Battalion raised in 2014 and now a part of Ukrainian army was instrumental in this military operation against the Russian supported separatists. Thus Minsk peace process failed to restore normalcy in the eastern Ukraine.

What Happened After 2014?

In fact, the fundamental factors leading the present Ukraine conflict are rotted in the major domestic and regional developments since 2014. The forcible takeover of Crimea by Russia forces in 2014 hardened Ukraine’s attitude towards Russia. Crimea’s background is also disputed. Crimea was annexed by Russian empire from Turkey in 1783 following a six year war. During Soviet era, Crimea was the part of Russian Republic. But in 1954, it was transferred by Soviet President to the republic of Ukraine. After disintegration of Soviet Union, Russia, now a new country has been demanding Crimea from Ukraine. Finally Russia annexed it by force in 2014.

This event led a series of developments in Ukraine by successive leaders mainly Zelensky, which paved the way for the present conflict:

A. In May, 2014 Ukraine encouraged the formation of Nazi military group known as Azov Battalion, which was integrated within Ukrainian forces in November, 2014. The fighters of Azov battalion created atrocities against the pro-Russian people in Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Russia blames that 14000 people have been killed since 2014 in eastern Ukraine. It is also suspected that the US military aid to Ukraine was successfully used for strengthening this Nazi force. The US adopted a flexible policy towards this group and ignored its doings. The Facebook, which imposed ban on Azov Battalion also lifted the ban in 2022 following the Russian invasion.  This is what Russia means by Denazification of Ukraine.

B. Zelensky came to power in 2019 following the serious corruption charges against the previous government. But he followed many anti-Russian policies to aggravate the situation:

1. He amended the Ukrainian Constitution in 2019 to declare NATO membership as Constitutional mission of Ukraine.

2. In 2020, Zelensky eliminated all pro-Russian opposition parties, banned their TV outlets, confiscated their property and imposed criminal charges against them. Some of them fled to Russia to save their lives. The EU and the US were mum on these anti-democratic policies of Zelensky.

3. In July, 2021, Zelensky issued a decree to take back Crimea from Russia possibly by force and with the assistance of NATO forces. It was after this that Russia started building up forces near Ukraine border since October, 2021.

These development hardened Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine. Russia did not have any hope of political intervention in Ukraine to save its interests. Putin mobilized forces in October 2021 and clearly put forth its demands about Security concerns arising from Ukraine’s NATO membership in December, 2021. But Biden and NATO, both did not give positive response. Zelensky was upbeat by these developments. It was in these circumstances that Russia has launched invasion against Ukraine on 24 February, 2022.

What is Minsk Peace Process? Minsk peace process is named so because the earlier peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine (in the wake of takeover of Crimea by Russia in 2024) were held in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, which is close ally of Russia. Ukraine’s eastern region along Russian boundary is known as Donbas. It consists of two republics-Donetsk and Luhansk. The majority people of these two republics are Russian speakers and want independence from Ukraine. They launched separatist movement in April, 2014 with the direct and indirect support of Russia in the wake of Russian capture of Crimea (another Ukraine territory) in 2014. This resulted into a bloody civil war in Ukraine.  In this war, so far, 14000 people from both sides have been killed. Minsk Peace Process: Minsk I and Minsk II In order to resolve this crisis, Normandy Contact group was formed which consisted of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia. This contact group mediated between the separatists and Ukraine government which resulted in Minsk-I agreement in September, 2014 in Belarus capital Minsk. The Minsk agreement called for end of hostilities, return of prisoner and greater decentralization of powers to two republics. However, the agreement was not implemented fully and the separatists continued to hold control of two republics. This  called for second round of negotiations in 2015 which resulted in 13 point Minsk II agreement same year. Now it also called for withdrawal of external forces from the Donbas region. The peace process was to be monitored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which is security consultation organization of Europe. The main points of the Minsk agreements: 1- An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire 2- Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides 3- Monitoring and verification by the OSCE 4- Restore full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine. 5.-Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces and arms 6- Constitutional reform in Ukraine for decentralization in two republics But the Minsk peace process has been followed more in breach than observance.   Why Minsk Process failed to resolve the present Crisis? 1. The Minsk process is primarily concerned with resolving internal separatism in  Ukraine,  But Russia has raised  additional demands beyond the scope of Minsk process. 2. Russia has demanded the written assurance for not admitting Ukraine as a NATO member as well as withdrawal of NATO missiles from Poland and other east European nations. 3- Thus the ongoing crisis between Russia and US along with NATO allies is mainly concerned with the issue of strategic influence of major powers on Ukraine and East Europe. Russia wants to carved out a safe strategic domain in Ukraine and East Europe, which the US and NATO are not willing to coin cede. In view of these facts, the stalemate continues and Minsk process seems inadequate to resolve this crisis.

Russia’s Declared Objectives of Military Operations in Ukraine

While launching ‘special military operation against Russia on 24 February, Russia declared its four objectives:

A. Neutral status of Ukraine and no membership of NATO. Russia wants this should be inserted in the constitution of Ukraine. Russia does not want that Ukraine join NATO as it would lead to NATO forces deployed in Ukraine , posing significant threat to Russian security. This is the main reason that Russia launched aggression against Ukraine in February, 2022.

B, Demilitarization of Ukraine, which effectively means destroying the military capability and infrastructure of Ukraine so that it is not in position to pose threat to Russia.

C. Denazification of Ukraine, which  mainly means destroying Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion of Ukraine. Russia feels that this battalion of Ukraine follows neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist ideology and has been instrumental in killing thousands of pro-Russian separatists in the eastern areas.

D. Ukraine recognition to Russian control on Crimea and independence of two republics in the Donbas region in the east. Before launching the special military operation, Russia has recognized the independence of two eastern republics (Luhansk and Donetsk). Russia would ensure that they remain as independent nations. This virtually means division of Ukrainian territory.

Course of War:

 Russia has conducted this war in two phases. During the first phase since the launch of the special military operation by Russian on 24 February to March 30, 2022, Russia concentrated on attacking Ukraine from three sides: East, North and South. The focus in this phase was on destroying military infrastructure of Ukraine. Russia has largely succeeded in this objective as it did not face any challenge from Ukraine in air attacks by missiles and bombs. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine held negotiations for peace in Istanbul mediated by Turkey but it did not succeed. However, partly due to facilitate negotiations and partly due to stiff Ukrainian resistance, Russia withdrew its forces from north including from around Capital Kyiv on 30 march, 2022. This led to the beginning of the second phase of Russian military operation in which Russia would capture areas in the south and east of Ukraine, linking a land corridor from Crimea to Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia is focusing on this objective now. This is largest conflict after the WWII. Since the beginning of war in February 2022 till June 2026, according to various estimates, nearly 15 lakhs civilians and armed forces have been killed or seriously wounded from both sides in the war. Russia has captured nearly 20 percent of in the Donbas region east of Ukraine.

Western Response

The response of the West including the US, NATO and EU members have been fourfold so far:

A. Diplomatic efforts in the form of getting passed resolution in the UN bodies like UN Security Council and UN General Assembly against Russian invasion. In one such resolution in April, 2022, passed by UNGA, Russia was expelled from UN Human rights Council for war crimes in Bucha which is suburban area of capital; Kyiv.

B. Supply of weapons by the NATO members and the US to Ukraine so that it can counter Russian invasion. Thus the west has supplied many weapons including drones, tanks defence systems and other to Ukraine.

C. Imposition of harsh economic sanctions against Russia to cripple it economy. The sanctions include restriction against Russian companies on trade and investment and certain individual in the Putin Regime. However, the most notable sanction has been the SWIFT ban on Russian bank, which would restrain them receiving and transfer of money in international currency from other nations. However, European countries have been reluctant to impose sanctions as they are dependent on Russia for 40 percent of their gas and oil needs. Even after one and half month of war, Russian gas and oil is being imported by European countries. This has caused some friction among the European countries.

D. The international media is largely controlled by the west, which has launched a war narrative highly critical of Russia and Putin. Putin has been termed as war criminal. The narrative has been built as war between Democracy and Authoritarianism of Putin. The Russian narrative of war is totally missing in this media propaganda, launched by the west.

These sanctions are tightened after every EU/ NATO meet.

What are the Future Prospects of the war?

Russia has declared on 12 April, 2022 that bit will not stop its military operations till its objectives are not met. Out of these four objectives the first one is already met as Zelensky has announced that Ukraine is ready for neutral status. Everyone knows that after Russian invasion, NATO will never admit Ukraine as a member in near future.

Second objective is also realized as Russian forces have systematically destroyed the defence capabilities of Ukraine like arm depots, training centres oil depots etc, though they are fighting with the weapons supplied by NATO.

The third objective is largely achieved. The Azov battalion is mainly concentrated in Mariupol city, which is encircled and largely controlled by Russian forces.

The fourth objective is also largely realized as Russian forces have captured by the middle of 2026 nearly 88 percent of Donbas region. In total, Russia has by the middle of 2026 occupied nearly 20 percent of the total land area of Ukraine in the east side.

But why there is not Agreement to End the war?

The American president Trump has pressed for mediation since January 2025 to end the war. He has discussed peace deal separately with Russian President  Putin as well as with Ukrainian President Zelensky.  But Russia has put the condition that Ukraine should recognize the territory, which has been captured by Russia during war. Recognizing foreign occupation in Ukraine is very sensitive issue for Ukraine and it is not willing to accept this condition of Russia. This is the main hurdle in the peace deal. Though, the US has reduced its military assistance o Ukraine, but the NATO members have continued their support to war efforts of Ukraine. The July, 2026 NATO Summit has pledged $80 billion military aid to Ukraine for the year and expressed the possibility of similar military aid for the year 2027. The European countries are supporting Ukraine as a hedging strategy, because they fear that a victorious Russia would be a more serious threat to them.

Thus, Zelensky, supported by the NATO countries may not sign the peace deal under Russian terms. In that case, as soon Russia realizes it goals of capturing eastern areas from Crimea to Donbas it may declare ceasefire on its own. This would result in what is known as frozen conflict. Russian troops will guard the territory captured by it or install a new Pro-Russian government in Donbas region, which consists of two provinces- Luhansk and Donetsk. In case of a frozen conflict, Ukraine will suffer more as it would live under constant threat and tensions from Russia without being able to fight and win against Russia. It will remain a pawn in the Western chess game against Russia.