PSIR Simplified

In spite of many diplomatic platitudes from both sides, it is difficult to escape the concern that the Indo-US relations are passing through a difficult and uncertain phase, not seen since the end of cold war in 1990s.

After the end of cold war, both countries came closer to gradually develop a robust strategic partnership, which former US president Barack Obama called as defining partnership’ of 21^st century, during his address to Indian parliament in 2010. The background of this defining partnership was the shared strategic perception about China’s military and economic rise and its consequences for the Indo-Pacific region as well as the existing global order. Thus, the US and India signed historic Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 2008, which ended India’s n global nuclear isolation since it conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. India was allowed the privilege of import of nuclear technology and material without signing the  Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as was the case with all other countries like India. There after  both did not looked back. The Defece Cooperation Agreement first signed in 2005 has been renewed in 2015, and 2025 without any hassle. Both signed four foundational agreements to facilitate closer cooperation and interoprationality between the two defence forces. They moved to forge closer cooperation in the areas of advanced technologies like AI, semiconductor, G-5, Quantum and other critical and emerging technologies through the mechanism like iCET (Initiatives for Emerging and Critical Technologies- 2023), which was upgraded and replaced as  TRUST initiative (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) in 2025 during the visit of the Indian PM tot eh US in February, 2025.

At political and multilateral level, both sides have maintained high level exchanges. Since 2000, there is no American President which ahs not visited India. They together joined QUAD in 2017 and conducted Malabar joint maritime exercise since 1992, which ahs been expanded now to include all members of QUAD. India also joined recently US led Pax Silica alliance to ensure the supply of critical minerals and technologies. This discussion attests that both have deliberately developed close partnership rooted on the shared strategic vision for the Indo-pacific region as well as the global order.

Trump and Modi during Trump’s First Term. Image Courtesy Getty Images

Emerging Tensions During Trump Administration

However, far last one year, the Trump administration has adopted many policies and initiatives against India which indicate the degradation of this strategic partnership between the two countries. Some of these developments are listed below:

1. The Trump Administration imposed 50 percent tariff on Indian  to the US in August, 2025, out of which 25 percent was the penalty for purchasing oil from Russia. In spite of carious rounds of negotiations, the trade agreement eludes the two countries. Now in August, 2026, the trump administration has supported a bill in the US Congress, which allows 100 percent tariff on the countries importing Russian Oil.
2. During and After the Operation Sindoor launched by India against the Pakistan, Trump has been reiterating that he has mediated the compromise between India and Pakistan. India has clarified that the compromise between the two was  bilateral without the role of any third party, but Trump continues to insist on his role and wants to take credit for this. Pakistan has recommended Trump’s name for the Noble Peace Prize in 2025, but unfortunately, he did not get it. This issue has caused embarrassment to both countries.
3. As if the tariff war was not sufficient, Trump administration moved to develop close ties with Pakistan, reversing its earlier polices. During the first Trump administration, the US has blocked the military aid to Pakistan, which has been resumed now. Pakistan is mediating between the US and Iran to resolve the conflict. The US bonhomie with Pakistan has frustrated India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan in the global arena.
4. The US President Trump’s lack of interest in Quad now, has delayed the QUAD summit which was to be held in India in 2025. There is no sign of this summit  being held in 2026. Quad is major forum for consultation on the strategic matters in the Indo-Pacific region.
5. The US administration in July, 2026 has renamed its Indo-Pacific Command as Asia-pacific command as it was known before 2018. The first Trump administration had renamed it as Indo-Pacific Command to highlight the growing salience of the Indian Ocean and India in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.
6. In May, 2026, Trump visited China and mooted the idea of the G-2, meaning the two global powers (China and the US) to come together for management of global affairs. It raises the question whether there is shift in the US policy towards China during Trump administration.

Trump and Modi Now: Image Courtesy Wikipedia commons

These developments in last one year give the impression that the US is trying to undermine India’s Strategic salience in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump always claims that the Indian PM Modi is his best friend, but his policies are going in the opposite direction.  Only doubt which remains to be considered is whether this change in Trump’s policy towards India is his personal preference or it is a sign of permanent change in the US polices towards India?  And that will be known after the new Presidential elections in the US in 2028.